12/13 Trade Review → -14pts/-$700 on 4 Trades:
Here’s a screenshot of the day’s action. I marked up 3 spots on the chart that I want to discuss. Keep in mind that the white horizontal lines indicate the initial balance high and low (which are the actionable entry levels for my strategy).
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1. TRADE #1: Long at Initial Balance Low → -1pt/-$50
Took a long at the initial balance low right after 10:30am. Had a nice 10+ point immediate impulse up, but then quickly reversed and took out the IB low. I exited the trade for a small 1 point loss and started looking for shorts.
2. TRADE #2: Short at Initial Balance Low → -6pts/-$300
TRADE #3: Short at Initial Balance Low → -3pts/-$150
TRADE #4: Short at Initial Balance Low → -4pts/-$200
After the relatively large red candle (over 25pts worth of range) that stopped me out of trade #1, pierced the IB low, and closed below it at 10:35pm – I immediately switched my bias to short and started looking for a pullback entry.
Filled around 10:40am, but got stopped out for a 6pt loss within 5mins. Re-entered again on a false break of the IB low and that’s when I thought I’d get downward excursion I was looking for, but got stopped out yet again for a 3pt loss.
The market started hovering around the IB low, which isn’t ideal – I want to see impulse one way or the other. But the market was clearly developing value lower and was having a hard time accepting back above it. So I gave it one more shot: 4pt loss.
3. Missed the Move I Was Looking For
After getting stopped out of my last trade of the day (trade #4), the market continued to hover back and forth through the IB low for another half hour – before eventually cracking and accelerating down 50+ points lower.
Overall – Got Chopped Up at the IB Low Before the Big Move:
The initial balance range today was over 50 points – so I didn’t want to sit this one out.
I took some good shots based on my strategy in this challenge and kept losses small, but the extended hour-long chop (from about 10:45am to 11:45am) caused me to run out of bullets and miss the big move I was looking for.
With FOMC tomorrow, there will probably be muted action before the announcement (small range/limited opportunity) – so that leaves Thursday and Friday this week, and maybe 2-3 days of decent trading next week going into the holiday.
I’m not going to force anything, but I still think it’s a possibility to hit the $9K Step 1 profit target before the end of the year. If no good opportunities present themselves this/next week, then I’ll sit tight and wait for better times to trade.
Written by Matt Thomas (@MattThomasTP)
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